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The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to announce an interest rate decision soon, with economists predicting a potential cut of 50 basis points due to a deteriorating economic outlook and low inflation. Current inflation stands at 0.7%, well below the target range, while economic growth remains below potential and unemployment is rising. Analysts argue that a significant cut is necessary as the SNB has already set expectations for a rate reduction through its communication strategy.
Economists widely anticipate a rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) during its upcoming monetary policy assessment, with discussions centered on whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points. The Swiss economy is facing challenges, including low inflation and rising unemployment, prompting calls for a more substantial cut to stimulate growth. Analysts suggest that the SNB's previous communication has set expectations for a reduction, making a 50-basis-point cut necessary to address the current economic landscape.
Swiss inflation rose to 0.7% in November, slightly up from 0.6% in October, driven by higher rents and clothing prices. The Swiss National Bank is expected to cut interest rates again on December 12, as inflation remains within its 0-2% target range, with further cuts anticipated by March. Economic concerns, particularly regarding Germany, and a strong franc contribute to the case for these rate reductions.
Switzerland's inflation rate rose slightly from 0.6% to 0.7% in November, yet disinflationary trends persist, with prices excluding rents increasing by only 0.1% year-on-year and imported goods prices falling by 2.3%. A 0.1% monthly decline in prices reflects lower costs in hospitality and vehicle sectors, while rents and air travel saw increases. The Swiss National Bank is expected to cut interest rates further in December, with potential for a zero or negative rate by December 2025 if inflation remains low.
Switzerland is experiencing economic challenges due to a slowdown in Germany, its largest trading partner, according to Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel. He noted that reduced demand from Germany's industrial sector is impacting Swiss exports, particularly in the automotive industry. As the Swiss franc strengthens, the central bank faces pressure to adjust interest rates, with further cuts likely as inflation remains below expectations.
Switzerland is experiencing economic challenges due to a slowdown in Germany, its primary trading partner, according to Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel. He noted that the decline in German industrial demand is significantly impacting Swiss industries, likening the situation to Germany having a cold while Switzerland suffers from the flu.
Martin Schlegel, a Swiss central banker, emphasized the need to increase equity at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to mitigate risks associated with its large balance sheet, which currently stands at CHF840 billion. He indicated that prioritizing capital reserves over profit distributions to the government may lead to no payouts this year, following two years of skipped disbursements after a record loss in 2022. With inflation at just 0.6%, concerns arise about the potential for it to fall below the SNB's target range.
At a Zurich conference, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasized that building equity capital is a priority over profit distribution, highlighting the need for flexible monetary policy to maintain price stability amid global economic fluctuations. He noted that Switzerland's inflation target is set between 0 and 2 percent, allowing the SNB to respond effectively to external shocks while addressing the challenges posed by a low equity capital situation. Schlegel affirmed that the central bank's policies have successfully supported the Swiss economy's resilience in the face of inflation and deflation risks.
Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel has stated that the bank's equity is currently insufficient to cover the risks associated with its large balance sheet. He emphasized the need to prioritize strengthening the central bank's capital base over profit distribution to the government and cantons.
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